Abstract
Using a stratified random sample of Portuguese students, this study proposes to identify
psychosocial, economic and contextual correlates of higher education dropout in the post-
pandemic era.
Despite the measures taken to improve enrolment in Higher Education (HE) (e.g., reducing fees and
increasing the number of available university institutions, scholarships, student housing facilities)
the national goal of reaching 40% in 2020 wasn’t achieved and the rate of students who join tertiary
studies (e.g., bachelor programmes – 30%) remains considerably lower than the EU-27 average
(40.3%) (European Commission, 2020). Also, 29% of Portuguese students in HE dropout from their
studies (Direção-Geral de Estatísticas da Educação e Ciência, 2018).Data from Eurostudent (2019)
stresses the vulnerability of Portuguese students to academic difficulties and dropout. Compared
to other EU countries, Portuguese students are one of those that 1) most indicate that financial
difficulties are a major reason for the interruption of studies (41% in Portugal), 2) show higher
international backgrounds (born abroad or with one parent born abroad); and 3) show lower
education backgrounds (e.g., percentages of students whose parents have not attended HE), which
are often connected to lower socio-economic backgrounds. Also, most Portuguese students state
that they can only afford to study in HE if they have a job (64% compared to 50% for the EU
average), which might impact academic performance. In the post-pandemic era, the higher
unemployment rates in youth are likely to increase this financial difficulty and subsequently the
academic dropout. Portugal also shows higher rates of students that are parents and therefore
might face higher challenges in reconciling the need to care for their offspring with the demands of
studying for a HE degree. It is also pertinent to consider that dropping out perpetuates financial
dependency and delays progress through developmental stages of the life cycle, such as leaving a
parent's house and starting a family. Due to the economic constraints of the current COVID-19
pandemic, this outcome is very likely to be heightened and have important psychological and social
impacts to this generation and, consequently, to society as a whole. Considering the mentioned
worrisome rates and the long-lasting and far-reaching consequences of HE dropout, it is important
to 1) further understand students' educational experiences, 2) establish which students show a
greater risk of dropout and 3) inform how to address the national shortfall for available solutions to
meet the needs of at-risk of dropout students adequately and cost-efficiently. The present study
proposes to answer the following research question: Which psychosocial, economical and
contextual correlates influence college students' intention to dropout in the post-pandemic period?
This study intends to map the dropout intentions of HE students considering specific correlates,
and outline strategies to resolve and prevent the challenges of at-risk students. This is especially
important nowadays since pre-existing financial and education disparities and inequality of
opportunities for success in HE may be heightened due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This project is
innovative not only because it focuses on a particularly vulnerable timing of dropout (post-
pandemic era), but also because it entails a broader risk and protection framework of dropout that
goes beyond existing literature.
This project includes the exploration of the impact on dropout of students’ background
characteristics (e.g., parental educational attainment, socio-economic background,
ethnic/cultural/migration background) and current financial difficulties, but also less explored
psychosocial determinants of academic dropout, such as professional and caring responsibilities,
perception of academic/social support and especially social/school connectedness. HE students
may be particularly vulnerable to the detrimental consequences of lack of social connectedness,
including not only dropout, but also social isolation, worse life satisfaction and mental health. Also,
the task value, that is the importance students place on a task/completion of a course in relation to
their identity, ideals, goals or their skill in a particular topic, has seldomly been considered in
literature, despites its evident theoretical importance to academic success. Similarly, the
perception of congruence between the course and personal career goals will be framed as a
protective factor related to HE persistence.
In addition, scientific literature shows a negative relation between academic failure and well-being
in university students but is inconclusive in terms of the direction of this association, which will be
addressed in the current study. Moreover, while much of the research on COVID-19 in HE focuses
on HE in general and mainly focusing public universities, exploring students' realities (similarities
and differences) in public and private universities deserves special consideration. Considering the
pandemic's economic challenges and the discrepancies in tuition fees between institutions, such a
topic might be of particular interest. Finally, this study will focus on dropout correlates throughout
the entire academic course and not only in the first year, a pattern found in the literature.
The need to establish an inclusive HE environment that fosters equity and diversity gains particular
importance in the post-COVID-19 era. It is urgent to assure that access, participation, progress and
completion of HE depend primarily on students’ abilities and performance and not on their personal
circumstances and background.
